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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 283 WTPZ25 KNHC 030846 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2021-08-02 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 08:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 09:29:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-02 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 439 WTPZ45 KNHC 020837 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters along the forecast track should end that possibility by early tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous advisory was needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 the center of Ten-E was located near 18.0, -113.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 020836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 113.4W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 113.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a short-lived tropical storm later today. Weakening is expected to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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