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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-09 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091451 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 80.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 80.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Mindy (AT3/AL132021)
2021-09-09 12:13:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 30.8, -83.0 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-09 12:13:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091012 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Corrected to show next advisory at 1100 AM EDT ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and over the western Atlantic by late this morning or early this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected on Friday, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low by Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the southeastern Georgia through this morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics
2021-09-09 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090842 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt. Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could occur sooner. Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of southeastern Georgia this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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