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Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-25 16:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 May 2018 14:45:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 May 2018 15:25:26 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-05-25 16:44:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 251444 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 1500 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21) X(21) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23) X(23) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 2(37) 1(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 25(42) 2(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 28(36) 4(40) 1(41) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 6(41) 1(42) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 8(39) 2(41) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 9(44) 1(45) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 39(52) 4(56) 1(57) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 14(41) 2(43) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 14(39) 3(42) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 14(34) 3(37) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 12(38) 2(40) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 6(36) 1(37) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) 2(29) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 2(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 2(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 35 5(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 7 36(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-05-25 16:44:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 251444 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved offshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Although the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the overall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that the system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough, the strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm. The initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of 30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z reported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to 35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this afternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and intensity. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad inner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term motion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge to the east should generally induce a slow north to north- northeastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a mid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the northern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it nears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the subtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN and HCCA. Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to slow down after it moves inland. 2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend and early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm surge watches may be required later today or tonight. 3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 19.7N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-25 16:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri May 25 the center of Alberto was located near 19.7, -86.8 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 1
2018-05-25 16:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 251443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 ...PRE-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 86.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests along the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Alberto. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be required for portions of this area later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday. On the foreast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern Untied States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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