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Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-26 16:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 14:45:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 14:45:42 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-05-26 16:45:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 261444 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 There has been an increase in convection to the east and southeast of the center of Alberto this morning, however, the overall organization of the system has not changed much. Visible satellite imagery and recent reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the circulation is somewhat elongated and a new low-level center could be forming just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. As suggested by the global models there could be several re-formations of or a discontinuity in the track of the low-level center today. Although there have been no recent observations to support the 35-kt intensity, the intensity is held at that value since the aircraft has not sampled the area well east of the center and due to the overall increase in convection. A shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to sharpen the larger negatively tilted trough over the eastern Gulf, which is expected to cause the cyclone to deepen during the next 24 to 36 hours. This trend is consistent with the global model guidance which unanimously strengthen Alberto through Sunday. After that time, Alberto is expected to be co-located with the upper-level low which should result in some decrease in shear and a possible transition to a more tropical cyclone-like structure. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, but only the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance brings Alberto near hurricane strength before landfall. Steady weakening should occur after the center moves inland. Alberto is moving northward to north-northeastward at about 9 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general heading today, but it is expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down on Sunday and Sunday night as it interacts with the mid- to upper-level trough/low over the Gulf. The track guidance has shifted slightly eastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA multi-model consensus. The eastward adjustment in the track forecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday and will continue into next week. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 21.6N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 23.8N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 26.0N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 27.4N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 29/1200Z 31.6N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1200Z 35.6N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1200Z 39.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-26 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 14:44:53 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-05-26 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 26 May 2018 14:44:53 GMT
Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-05-26 16:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 261444 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 1500 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 7 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 34 3 9(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 2 11(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) VENICE FL 34 1 18(19) 5(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) TAMPA FL 34 X 12(12) 8(20) 2(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) 7(32) 1(33) X(33) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 11(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 18(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 9( 9) 30(39) 16(55) 4(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 22(44) 10(54) 1(55) X(55) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 25(39) 15(54) 1(55) X(55) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 14(24) 3(27) 1(28) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 18(50) 2(52) X(52) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 24(34) 18(52) 2(54) X(54) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 23(55) 10(65) 1(66) X(66) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 18(41) 2(43) X(43) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 16(33) 2(35) X(35) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 12(25) 1(26) 1(27) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 11(27) 1(28) X(28) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 2(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HAVANA 34 17 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLE OF PINES 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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