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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-05-26 10:52:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 260852 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0900 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 8(21) 2(23) X(23) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 17(17) 19(36) 9(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 18(40) 2(42) X(42) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 26(43) 3(46) X(46) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 1(21) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 28(41) 4(45) 1(46) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 31(45) 4(49) 1(50) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 32(42) 20(62) 2(64) X(64) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 29(38) 4(42) 1(43) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 23(31) 6(37) X(37) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 5(31) X(31) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 19(29) 4(33) X(33) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 13(38) 1(39) X(39) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 3(22) X(22) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 48 6(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 3 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)

2018-05-26 10:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ALBERTO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat May 26 the center of Alberto was located near 19.9, -85.6 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 4

2018-05-26 10:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 260852 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018 ...ALBERTO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 85.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster north-northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto is expected to move through the Yucatan Channel today and track across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and continue into early next week. Flooding potential will increase across this region early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the United States watch area beginning on Sunday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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