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Tropical Storm Otis Graphics
2017-09-18 16:51:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:51:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 14:51:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-09-18 16:45:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Otis is weakening at a remarkable rate. Only 12 hours ago, the cyclone had an eye, but now most of the deep convection has dissipated entirely. The cloud pattern now only supports an intensity of about 45 kt, but Dvorak intensity estimates are constrained to higher values by the rules of the technique. Given the small size of Otis, it seems possible that this is a rare case where the intensity is dropping faster than the Dvorak technique allows. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt, but it is possible that Otis is even weaker than this. Continued rapid weakening is expected, and most of the dynamical models show Otis becoming a remnant low within about 36 h. The GFS and ECMWF maintain a weak surface low for another couple days after that, but suggest it will dissipate entirely shortly after 96 h. Otis has continued to move northward over the past 6 hours, but it appears to be slowing down. As the circulation becomes shallower over the next 12 to 24 hours, Otis will be increasingly steered by the low-level northeasterly flow associated with a ridge over the central Pacific. This should cause the cyclone to make a sharp turn toward the southwest later today or early tomorrow morning. Little change has been made to the track forecast, which is close to an average of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 19.0N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 19.3N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 18.7N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 17.8N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 16.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 14.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2017-09-18 16:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 181442 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-18 16:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OTIS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Otis was located near 19.0, -127.4 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Otis Public Advisory Number 28
2017-09-18 16:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181442 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...OTIS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 127.4W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 127.4 West. Otis is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn toward the southwest is expected tonight. A continued southwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast after that. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Otis is expected to become a tropical depression by tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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