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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Advisory Number 28
2017-09-18 16:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 181441 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 127.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 127.4W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.3N 128.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.7N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.8N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Otis Graphics
2017-09-18 10:39:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 08:39:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 08:39:40 GMT
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Hurricane Otis Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-09-18 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180833 TCDEP5 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 What goes up must come down -- Otis is a classic example of what can happen with a small tropical cyclone. After rapidly intensifying earlier today, the cloud pattern has become rather poorly organized, with the center on the western edge of an irregular central dense overcast. The wind speed is reduced to 85 kt, on the high side of the latest Dvorak estimates, and this could be generous. Further weakening is likely since Otis has moved over cool SSTs and increasing shear is expected by tomorrow. Thus, rapid weakening is forecast, and the official intensity is reduced from the previous one, lying near the model consensus, although the corrected consensus models are even lower. Global models suggest Otis will degenerate into a remnant low within 2 days. Otis is still moving northward, recently at 5 kt. This northward motion should turn to the west and southwest over the next 36 hours as it is steered by a low-level ridge over the central Pacific. The global models are generally showing a stronger ridge, and the guidance has shifted farther southwest with the track of the expected remnants of the cyclone. The new NHC prediction follows the latest guidance, resulting in a faster track that is to the southwest of the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.5N 127.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 19.2N 127.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.3N 127.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.0N 128.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 18.2N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 14.7N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2017-09-18 10:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180833 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-18 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FICKLE OTIS NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Otis was located near 18.5, -127.3 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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