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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-11 10:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 11 Jul 2019 08:47:52 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-11 10:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110846 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 The convective activity associated with the broad area of low pressure is still spread out, and the center of circulation is not well defined at this time. Both surface and scatterometer data indicate that the winds remain near 25 kt. The modest northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further development. Overall, the environmental conditions still favor the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today, and as the system moves over warm waters, strengthening is indicated. The intensity models are not as aggressive as they were in previous runs, but still bring the disturbance to hurricane status in about 48 hour or so, as the disturbance approaches the coast. During the past several hours, the low pressure area has barely moved due to weak steering currents. However, a westward or 260 degrees drift at about 4 kt should begin soon. The system is heading toward a weakness in the ridge, and this pattern should induce a slow turn toward the west-northwest and then north during the next 3 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast continues to be located on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and it has been adjusted slightly eastward to be more consistent with the multi-model ensemble TVCA. It should be noted that track errors are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the forecast is not high at the moment. Key Messages: 1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast. 2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Additional storm surge watches may be needed later today. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen to any advice given by local officials. 3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings could be required. Residents in the watch area should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 27.5N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 11/1800Z 27.5N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 27.7N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 28.0N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 28.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-07-11 10:46:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 110846 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0900 UTC THU JUL 11 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 2(20) 1(21) GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 14(27) 14(41) 1(42) X(42) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 25(37) 2(39) 1(40) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 16(27) 15(42) 1(43) X(43) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 16 32(48) 14(62) 6(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 7(32) 1(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 27(51) 2(53) X(53) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 17(18) 41(59) 17(76) 6(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 23(37) 8(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 40(58) 1(59) 1(60) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) 1(21) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 28(64) 2(66) X(66) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) X(26) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 32(37) 6(43) 1(44) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 40(59) 3(62) X(62) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 38(62) 2(64) X(64) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 1(25) X(25) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 27(40) 11(51) 1(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 1(21) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) 5(37) X(37) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 33(42) 2(44) X(44) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 24(31) 22(53) 1(54) 1(55) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) X(19) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 18(22) 4(26) X(26) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 2(23) 1(24) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 13(25) 1(26) 1(27) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 15(31) 1(32) 1(33) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-11 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE SOON... ...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 the center of Two was located near 27.5, -88.2 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 4
2019-07-11 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110845 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019 ...DISTURBANCE IS NOT A DEPRESSION YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE SOON... ...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 88.2W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a west-northwest motion is expected on Friday followed by a northwestward track by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana coast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late Friday. Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today and Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches. Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which has resulted in flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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