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Hurricane Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-09-15 10:58:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 150858 PWSAT4 HURRICANE SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) X(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 4 7(11) 7(18) 3(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 6(10) 5(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) PANAMA CITY FL 34 6 13(19) 12(31) 2(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 7 19(26) 21(47) 4(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 3( 5) 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 4( 7) 17(24) 8(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 10 33(43) 22(65) 5(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 5( 5) 13(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) WHITING FLD FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 25 34(59) 16(75) 2(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) PENSACOLA FL 50 2 8(10) 15(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 11 3(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 36 42(78) 12(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MOBILE AL 50 2 28(30) 21(51) 4(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) MOBILE AL 64 X 7( 7) 13(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GULFPORT MS 34 45 35(80) 7(87) 2(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) GULFPORT MS 50 3 18(21) 13(34) 2(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) GULFPORT MS 64 1 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) STENNIS MS 34 25 33(58) 10(68) 2(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) STENNIS MS 50 1 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) STENNIS MS 64 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 45 12(57) 5(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BURAS LA 50 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 24 10(34) 4(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 3 3( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 7 13(20) 9(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMERON LA 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 68 18(86) 4(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) PENSACOLA NAS 50 7 21(28) 12(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) PENSACOLA NAS 64 1 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) KEESLER AB 34 69 24(93) 3(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) KEESLER AB 50 7 38(45) 11(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) KEESLER AB 64 1 15(16) 8(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 16
2020-09-15 10:58:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150858 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 88.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle. The Storm Surge Warning between Port Fourchon and the Mouth of the Mississippi River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and move across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today into Wednesday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-15 10:58:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150858 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE. THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN PORT FOURCHON AND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 88.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 110SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 88.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.2N 88.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.6N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.2N 86.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.8N 84.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.2N 81.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 88.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-15 07:56:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE JOGGING WESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 the center of Sally was located near 28.8, -88.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 15A
2020-09-15 07:56:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150556 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...SALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE JOGGING WESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 88.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some re-strengthening is forecast early to occur later today, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A NOAA C-MAN observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h), while a buoy just south of Dauphin Island recently reported a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay an Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland during the day today. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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