je.st
news
Tag: sally
Hurricane Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-15 04:46:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:46:42 GMT
Tags: map
storm
hurricane
sally
Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-15 04:46:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150246 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation. Aircraft and Doppler radar fixes indicate that Sally is moving very slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 300/3 kt. Weak high pressure ridging to the north and east of Sally is expected to cause the hurricane to continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for another 12 hours, bringing the center of the storm very near the northern Gulf coast. By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricane will likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currents collapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finally turning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough over the central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is occurring very near land. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Sally is still in generally favorable environmental conditions consisting of very warm SSTs and low wind shear. Since the hurricane will likely remain in those conditions through Tuesday morning, some strengthening seems likely in the short term. In 12 to 24 hours, when Sally is forecast to be very near the coast, a combination of an increase in westerly shear and cooler upwelled shelf waters should limit additional intensification. After the hurricane makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days over the southeast U.S. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and is quite similar to the previous one. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely with Sally, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers, along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama and into northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas through the week. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 28.9N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-15 04:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 150245 PWSAT4 HURRICANE SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 3(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 34 5 9(14) 11(25) 6(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) APALACHICOLA 50 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 7(13) 9(22) 4(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 12 16(28) 17(45) 6(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) PANAMA CITY FL 50 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 18 18(36) 28(64) 9(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 2 3( 5) 10(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 10(24) 5(29) 2(31) X(31) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 3( 5) 11(16) 8(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 4( 7) 27(34) 15(49) 5(54) 1(55) X(55) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 20 29(49) 28(77) 7(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) WHITING FLD FL 50 2 6( 8) 26(34) 11(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 34 48 23(71) 15(86) 4(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) PENSACOLA FL 50 4 10(14) 27(41) 9(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 34 40 36(76) 16(92) 3(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) MOBILE AL 50 2 25(27) 35(62) 9(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) MOBILE AL 64 X 7( 7) 29(36) 7(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) GULFPORT MS 34 38 38(76) 13(89) 3(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) GULFPORT MS 50 3 21(24) 24(48) 5(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) GULFPORT MS 64 X 6( 6) 16(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) STENNIS MS 34 18 41(59) 16(75) 4(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) STENNIS MS 50 2 9(11) 14(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 36 26(62) 9(71) 3(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) BURAS LA 50 3 8(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BURAS LA 64 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 26 20(46) 6(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 890W 50 4 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 3 4( 7) 15(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) JACKSON MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 6 18(24) 18(42) 4(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 5( 8) 8(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 4( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 81 11(92) 4(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PENSACOLA NAS 50 11 25(36) 19(55) 5(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) PENSACOLA NAS 64 3 6( 9) 17(26) 4(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) KEESLER AB 34 66 24(90) 6(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) KEESLER AB 50 6 37(43) 26(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) KEESLER AB 64 2 17(19) 21(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-15 04:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Sally was located near 28.9, -87.6 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
sally
at4al192020
Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-15 04:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 87.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana, has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A buoy south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through early Tuesday in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland during the day on Tuesday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Sites : [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] next »