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Hurricane Sally Graphics
2020-09-15 16:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:47:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 15:32:33 GMT
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-15 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 151445 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 The satellite presentation of Sally has not changed much since overnight. A ragged eye is seen in WSR-88D radar imagery, with a band occasionally trying to wrap around the southwestern side. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has just recently provided a new center fix, and data from the center drop indicated the minimum pressure is 983 mb. The first pass through the northeastern quadrant suggests that the 50-kt wind field may have expanded, but there has been little change in peak winds reported by the aircraft. The intensity has been held at 75 kt pending additional data from the NOAA P-3 mission that has just begun. A highly elevated oil rig just northeast of the center reported peak has reported sustained winds of 69 kt with a gust to 86 kt around 1200 UTC this morning. Sally has been meandering this morning, but the longer-term motion is northwestward or 315/2 kt. Sally remains within an area of weak steering flow, but a weak mid-level trough over the south-central United States is forecast to slide eastward over the next over the next couple of days. This pattern should cause Sally to move very slowly north-northwestward to northward over the next 24 hours, with the center of the hurricane nearing the northern Gulf Coast late tonight or Wednesday. By late Wednesday, Sally should turn northeastward as the aforementioned trough approaches Missouri and Arkansas. The new forecast has been nudged slightly eastward in the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion is very close to the previous advisory. The new track lies a little to the west of the various consensus aids in deference to the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models that are near the left edge of the guidance envelope. Sally's forward motion is forecast to be around 5 kt or less throughout the forecast period, which will result in a long period of heavy rainfall and historic flooding along the north-central Gulf Coast. Moderate westerly shear and upwelling beneath the slow moving hurricane are likely to prevent strengthening today. The shear is forecast to increase tonight and although some slight weakening could occur before the center reaches the coast, Sally is predicted to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall. Once Sally moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and circulation is forecast to lose definition and dissipate by day 4. Users are reminded to not focus on the specific timing and location of landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, historic flash flooding from heavy rainfall, and dangerous winds will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle. The highest inundation is expected along the Alabama coast, including Mobile Bay. 2. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, are likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 29.1N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-15 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 151445 PWSAT4 HURRICANE SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 4 10(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 6(10) 6(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) PANAMA CITY FL 34 11 18(29) 10(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 26 26(52) 16(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 2 4( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 8(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 3( 5) 8(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 8(10) 27(37) 8(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 49 22(71) 12(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) WHITING FLD FL 50 2 14(16) 18(34) 2(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) WHITING FLD FL 64 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 75 11(86) 5(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PENSACOLA FL 50 7 22(29) 14(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) PENSACOLA FL 64 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 9 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 77 13(90) 4(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MOBILE AL 50 9 28(37) 13(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MOBILE AL 64 2 9(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GULFPORT MS 34 66 12(78) 3(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) GULFPORT MS 50 3 7(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 64 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 29 14(43) 6(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) STENNIS MS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 19 8(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 890W 34 9 7(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 890W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 5 7(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 50 32 24(56) 6(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PENSACOLA NAS 64 2 13(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) KEESLER AB 34 85 8(93) 1(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) KEESLER AB 50 13 20(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) KEESLER AB 64 2 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-15 16:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SALLY CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 the center of Sally was located near 29.1, -88.2 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-15 16:45:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 151445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...SALLY CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 88.2W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.2 West. Sally is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow north- northwestward to northward motion is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow northward to north-northeastward motion tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line,FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and these conditions will continue through Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes may occur today through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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