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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-09-15 16:44:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 151443 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS... AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Sally (AT4/AL192020)

2020-09-15 13:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 the center of Sally was located near 29.1, -88.0 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 16A

2020-09-15 13:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 562 WTNT34 KNHC 151144 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 88.0W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...4-7 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and move across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today into Wednesday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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