je.st
news
Tag: elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 36A
2021-07-09 07:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 090547 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA TOWARD DELAWARE BAY... ...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 75.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LEWES DELAWARE ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the Chesapeake Bay, Potomac River, Albemarle Sound, and Pamlico Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Fenwick Island, Delaware to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 75.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states this morning and move near or over the northeastern United States this afternoon and tonight. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mostly southeast of the center. NOAA buoy 44009 near the mouth of Delaware Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h), gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches), based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the mid-Atlantic coast this morning. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states later today. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in limited flash and urban flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the Mid-Atlantic coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-09 07:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 05:47:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 03:22:40 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-09 04:41:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 02:41:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 03:22:40 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 36
2021-07-09 04:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090235 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening. Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt. It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size, resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within 24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England, and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus of the global models. The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 37.6N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2021-07-09 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 795 FONT15 KNHC 090234 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X 11(11) 19(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 47(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST JOHN NB 34 X 11(11) 16(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ST JOHN NB 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) EASTPORT ME 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 1 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) NANTUCKET MA 34 6 46(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 20(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 34 17 16(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MONTAUK POINT 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) OCEAN CITY MD 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) PAX RIVER NAS 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) RICHMOND VA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] next »