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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-08-21 01:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202345 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...INITIAL REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 55.5W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 55.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area late Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 22:58:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 20:58:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 20:58:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-20 22:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202053 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 Recent late afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown evidence of a low-level swirl that is racing away from the persistent area of deep convection. It is unclear if that is the only center of circulation or a swirl rotating around the broader circulation. The initial position for this advisory is a compromise between the earlier estimated center location and the swirl seen in satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/18 kt. The cyclone is located south of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to build westward over the western Atlantic through early next week. This ridge should steer the system west-northwestward over the next several days, and the suite of dynamical track models continue to be agreement on this overall scenario. The lastest NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory and again lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. It should be noted that since the system is still lacking in organization, there could be some center reformations that result in some shifts in the track forecast. Although the depression has changed little in strength since it formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.7N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 22:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 16.7, -53.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-20 22:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 202052 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 14(32) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 13(37) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 12(42) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 10(35) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 23(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 6(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 3(41) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 2(45) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 28(47) X(47) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 15(37) 1(38) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 7(47) X(47) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 1(42) X(42) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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