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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-08-21 01:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202345 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...INITIAL REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 55.5W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 55.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area late Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 22:58:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 20:58:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 20:58:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-20 22:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202053 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 Recent late afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown evidence of a low-level swirl that is racing away from the persistent area of deep convection. It is unclear if that is the only center of circulation or a swirl rotating around the broader circulation. The initial position for this advisory is a compromise between the earlier estimated center location and the swirl seen in satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/18 kt. The cyclone is located south of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to build westward over the western Atlantic through early next week. This ridge should steer the system west-northwestward over the next several days, and the suite of dynamical track models continue to be agreement on this overall scenario. The lastest NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory and again lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. It should be noted that since the system is still lacking in organization, there could be some center reformations that result in some shifts in the track forecast. Although the depression has changed little in strength since it formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.7N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 22:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 16.7, -53.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-20 22:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202052 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 53.9W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 53.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday, near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and near or north of Hispaniola Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over the northern Leeward Islands, and maximum totals of 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sunday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area late Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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