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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2020-11-13 03:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 981 FONT14 KNHC 130243 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 51
2020-11-13 03:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 220 WTNT24 KNHC 130243 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 79.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-12 21:52:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 20:52:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 21:24:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 50
2020-11-12 21:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122043 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band located well east of the center. The circulation has also become more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary on Friday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday. Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50
2020-11-12 21:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 122041 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LITTLE RIVER 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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