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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Graphics
2020-11-13 09:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:37:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 09:24:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Forecast Discussion Number 52
2020-11-13 09:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130834 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 While the cyclone is still generating a cluster of strong convection to the northeast of the center, satellite imagery, surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that Eta has merged with a baroclinic zone and become an extratropical cyclone off the southeastern coast of the United States. The scatterometer data showed vectors of 40-50 kt along a front or convergence zone northeast of the center, but these vectors were in the strong convective region and their reliability is uncertain. This, the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 40 kt. Eta is forecast to strengthen as a baroclinic low until the system is absorbed by another low pressure area in about 48 h. The initial motion is 060/18. The post-tropical cyclone cyclone should continue this general motion with an increase in forward speed until it is absorbed. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Eta. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 33.3N 76.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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eta
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-13 09:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW... As of 4:00 AM EST Fri Nov 13 the center of Eta was located near 33.3, -76.8 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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eta
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Public Advisory Number 52
2020-11-13 09:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130833 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 ...ETA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 76.8W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to gradually pull away from the southeast U.S. coast today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta could intensify a little as an non-tropical cyclone during the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2020-11-13 09:34:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 130833 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN