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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Forecast Advisory Number 52
2020-11-13 09:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130833 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 76.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-13 03:45:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:45:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 02:45:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 51
2020-11-13 03:44:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130244 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a frontal boundary just to its west. Deep convection is mostly confined to the northern side of the system and in patches associated with its trailing trough. Since buoy 41004 off the South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory. The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up into a trough soon. Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an extratropical cyclone. The non-tropical low is then forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic. Eta, or its remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic influences. Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt. An even faster motion to the northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. This should take Eta, or its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast. Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-13 03:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ETA JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 10:00 PM EST Thu Nov 12 the center of Eta was located near 32.3, -79.0 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 51
2020-11-13 03:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 234 WTNT34 KNHC 130243 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...CENTER OF ETA JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 79.0W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 79.0 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this heading with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to gradually pull away from the southeast U.S. coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta could intensify a little as a non-tropical cyclone during the next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. An observation at Folly Beach Pier in South Carolina recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rain bands extending southwest of Etas center will produce an additional 1 to 2 inches over portions of South Florida tonight, where isolated maximum storm total accumulations will range between 20 and 25 inches. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible overnight, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the southeastern United States coast through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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