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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-11-02 00:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 012357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT... ...WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 79.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane later tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The latest minimum central is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday afternoon: Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-01 21:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 20:54:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Nov 2020 20:54:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-01 21:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 012053 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 Eta has continued to quickly become better organized today with an increase in banding and the development of a central dense overcast feature. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes this afternoon has found a strengthening tropical storm. The aircraft has reported a minimum pressure of 992 mb and a 30 n-mi-wide eye that is open to the southwest. A blend of the SFMR and flight-level wind data support an initial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory. Given the much improved inner-core structure as reported by the reconnaissance aircraft and the favorable environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear and high ocean heat content, additional strengthening is likely. The intensity guidance is much higher this cycle, and the various rapid intensification models show a much more significant chance of rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The DTOPS model indicates a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, while the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 53 percent chance of a 45-kt increase over the next 36 hours. Based on the higher initial intensity and the more bullish guidance, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased and essentially calls for rapid strengthening until Eta reaches the coast of Central America. Once inland, Eta should quickly weaken over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. Eta is still moving steadily westward or 270 degrees at about 14 kt. A westward motion at a somewhat slower forward speed is expected tonight. On Monday, Eta is forecast to turn southwestward at a slower forward speed when a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. Eta is forecast to move inland over northeastern Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area Monday night or early Tuesday. The dynamical models are in relatively good agreement through about 72 hours, expect for the HWRF which shows a more northern track and keeps Eta offshore for much of the period. This solution is considered an outlier at this time, and the NHC track is in good agreement with the various global models and the HFIP corrected consensus model. Some model solutions still suggest Eta or its remnants will re-emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. The new NHC 5-day position is still inland near the Gulf of Honduras close to the various consensus aids, but large uncertainty exists in the forecast at that time range due to the large spread in the track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, and additional strengthening is forecast before it reaches the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. Through Friday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1800Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-01 21:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... ...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 PM EST Sun Nov 1 the center of Eta was located near 14.9, -78.9 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 5
2020-11-01 21:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 012052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... ...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 78.9W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 78.9 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday. Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday afternoon: Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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