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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Forecast Advisory Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111436 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT.......210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 600SE 840SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 52.5N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 54.0N 48.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LARRY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 43
2021-09-11 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110832 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 Larry made landfall near South East Bight, Newfoundland, around 0345 UTC. Since then, the hurricane has moved quickly north- northeastward at 42 kt and is now well northeast of Newfoundland. Although the hurricane still has some central convection, the low- and mid-level centers are separating, and the remaining convection is decreasing. The initial winds are lowered to 65 kt, consistent with the degraded structure. Larry should quickly transition into a strong post-tropical cyclone later today while it continues its speedy north-northeastward course, then dissipate as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low over the Labrador Sea. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 50.7N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-11 10:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Sep 2021 08:32:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Sep 2021 09:22:46 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2021-09-11 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 110831 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-11 10:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY RACING AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 11 the center of Larry was located near 50.7, -51.7 with movement NNE at 48 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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