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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 61.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm Warning along the southern coast of southeastern Newfoundland westward to Francois and along the northern coast of southeastern Newfoundland to Fogo Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A turn to the northeast with a further increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 100843 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 46(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 98(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 87(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 97(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 71(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 67 12(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SABLE ISLAND 50 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100843 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WESTWARD TO FRANCOIS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO FOGO ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..380NE 350SE 280SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.9N 59.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 60.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 480SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 61.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-10 07:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY HEADING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Sep 10 the center of Larry was located near 36.5, -62.2 with movement N at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 38A
2021-09-10 07:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100550 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY HEADING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 62.2W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 62.2 West. Larry is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h). A further increase in forward speed is expected this morning with a turn to the northeast forecast later today. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda this morning, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland tonight or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin later today, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, and is now forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low near Greenland by the end of the weekend. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect portions of the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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