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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-10 19:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 17:52:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 15:22:52 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-10 19:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 10 the center of Larry was located near 41.8, -59.5 with movement NNE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 40A
2021-09-10 19:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.8N 59.5W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 59.5 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-10 16:50:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 14:50:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 15:22:52 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 40
2021-09-10 16:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101448 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 Larry remains a well organized hurricane at a high latitude, and it is quickly approaching southeastern Newfoundland. Satellite images show a fairly tight inner core and large curved bands surrounding that feature. However, there are some notable dry slots between the core and bands that have developed during the past several hours. The latest Dvorak numbers have nudged downward, with the CI values ranging between 65 kt and 72 kt. Based on these estimates, and a very recent ASCAT pass that showed peak winds near 65 kt, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt for this advisory. The cyclone remains quite large, with hurricane-force winds and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 80 and 210 n mi from the center, respectively. The hurricane is in the process of turning to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be a fairly quick 015/25 kt. An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves in the fast flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S./eastern Canada and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This motion should take Larry across southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is then expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Larry will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream Current later today, the hurricane will likely hold its strength or weaken just a little before landfall. After landfall, the models show the inner core dissipating, and the combination of land interaction, cooler waters, and an increase in shear should cause weakening and lead to extratropical transition by early Saturday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS model, which often performs well for hurricanes that transition to extratropical cyclones. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 40.0N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 57.5N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z 61.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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