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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 42

2021-09-11 04:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110247 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 54.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 41 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 380SE 500SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 54.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 56.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.9N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...230NE 250SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 56.8N 44.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.8N 54.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Larry Graphics

2021-09-11 01:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 23:45:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 21:22:45 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

2021-09-11 01:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Sep 10 the center of Larry was located near 44.9, -56.5 with movement NNE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 41A

2021-09-11 01:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 102341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.9N 56.5W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 44.9 North, longitude 56.5 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). Canadian buoy 44139 recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). Canadian Buoy 44139 recently reported a pressure of 962.1 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, and tropical storm conditions are starting to spread into the area at this time. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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