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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 7 the center of Larry was located near 25.8, -56.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...LARGE LARRY CONTINUING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 56.8W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by the reconnaissance aircraft is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-09-08 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 080242 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) X(46) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 44(79) X(79) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 37(47) X(47) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 19(52) X(52) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 10(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-08 01:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 23:56:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 21:23:05 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-08 01:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS LARGE LARRY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SWELLS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... As of 8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 7 the center of Larry was located near 25.4, -56.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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