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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-07 17:10:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 15:10:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 15:10:15 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-07 16:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 7 the center of Larry was located near 24.4, -55.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 28
2021-09-07 16:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071459 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 55.6W ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 55.6 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-09-07 16:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071459 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 07 2021 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and found that the hurricane has weakened somewhat. The central pressure has risen to 967 mb, and the eyewall is becoming less well defined. Satellite imagery shows that the eye is still evident but the deep convection has has decreased in coverage and intensity. Using a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft gives a current intensity estimate of 100 kt, although this may be generous. The hurricane continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt. Larry is forecast to move around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the system should begin to accelerate northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United States. Thereafter, Larry should be well-embedded in the higher-latitude southwesterly flow, pass near Newfoundland and move into the far North Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in very close agreement with the latest NOAA corrected consensus and Florida State University (FSU) Superensemble tracks. Larry is in a low-shear environment with fairly well-defined upper-level outflow. However dry mid-level air and possible upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation appear to be at least partially responsible for weakening. Since the environment does not appear to be very hostile for the next couple of days, only slow weakening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast for the next 48-72 hours lies below the statistical dynamical Decay-SHIPS guidance and above the coupled- HWRF dynamical model prediction. By 96 hours, the FSU cyclone phase analysis indicates that Larry will have undergone an extratropical transition, and this is also shown in the official forecast. Larry is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday as a large hurricane. Given the expansive size of Larry's wind field and forecast uncertainties, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the island. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are possible there Thursday, along with a risk of heavy rainfall and coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.4N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 31.8N 61.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 34.9N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 50.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2021-09-07 16:59:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 071458 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 2(44) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 62(62) 1(63) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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