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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-10-24 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240235 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......170NE 70SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 420SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 62.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-23 22:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 20:52:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 20:52:44 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-23 22:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232051 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-23 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 23 the center of Epsilon was located near 35.5, -61.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 20
2020-10-23 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232050 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 ...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 61.7W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northward motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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