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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-04 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did, Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a lack of organized convection. ASCAT-B showed a few believable 25-30 kt vectors and is the basis for the intensity analysis. Omar's status has no meaningful bearing on the forecast. An approaching deep-layer trough from the west should cause the weak cyclone to turn northeastward or north-northeastward later today and accelerate in that direction through the weekend. A lack of deep convection and the increase in forward speed will likely cause Omar to dissipate by early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.2N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 35.8N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1200Z 37.1N 56.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 39.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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