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Tropical Storm CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-06-14 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141435 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014 Cristina's convective organization is degrading quickly, with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of an elongating convective band. A blend of the Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT support downgrading Cristina to a 60-kt tropical storm on this advisory. Vertical shear will continue to increase during the next day or two, and Cristina will also be moving over sub-26C water in about 12-24 hours. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast to continue, and the cyclone will likely become a remnant low in 36-48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast favors a fairly quick weakening rate and is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HWRF model. Cristina has slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is 310/5 kt. Now that vertical shear is decoupling the system, the cyclone is likely to turn toward the west-northwest later today and maintain that heading through 48 hours. After that time, a break in the subtropical ridge should allow the remnant low to turn toward the north-northwest before it dissipates. This northward trend has been observed in several model cycles, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted northward on days 3 and 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 19.4N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.2N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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