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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-07-26 16:50:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Satellite images and microwave data indicate that Irwin's cloud pattern has significantly deteriorated since yesterday. It now consists of a tight circulation center located just to the south of an area of deep, but not too well organized, convection. Consequently, the initial intensity has been decreased to 55 kt based on lower Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies. The environment does not support significant weakening, but is not favorable for much intensification either. The NHC forecast calls for a slight weakening today, and shows no change in intensity for the next 5 days. Although the intensity forecast is a little bit different from the previous one due to the lower current intensity, it does not change the general trend expressed in previous NHC forecasts. Irwin is moving toward the west-southwest or 255 degrees at 6 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents, and Irwin will probably continue on the same slow west-southwest track during the next day or two. After that time, Hurricane Hilary is forecast to pass well north of Irwin, and the steering currents will change to southerlies, and most of the models agree that Irwin should begin to move with a northerly component in the wake of Hilary. This is reflected in the official NHC forecast which in fact is close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and is not very different from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.6N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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