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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-07-30 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Infrared and earlier microwave satellite pictures show that Irwin remains fairly well organized. An 0308 UTC AMSU microwave overpass revealed a curved band over the southeastern portion of the circulation and a mid-level eye-like feature. Recent ASCAT data suggest that Irwin is slightly stronger than earlier estimates, so the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt for this advisory. Irwin is forecast to move north of the 26 deg C isotherm later this morning, and over even colder waters within the next 36 to 48 hours. As a result, Irwin is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low late Monday. The new NHC wind speed forecast is identical to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus aids. Irwin has begun its much anticipated northward acceleration, with recent satellite fixes indicating a motion of 350/8 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward today and continue to accelerate in south-southeasterly low- to mid-level flow in the wake of Hilary. In 36 to 48 hours, Irwin is forecast to turn northwestward and slow down when it approaches Hilary's remnant low. The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered through 48 h, with some spread later in the period. The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 17.1N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 18.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 20.9N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 23.2N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z 27.5N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0600Z 28.5N 133.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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