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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-29 17:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 354 WTPZ41 KNHC 291535 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become better organized, with the low-level center embedded under the convective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the southeastern semicircle. Based on this and continuity from earlier scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Sergio with 35 kt winds. Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing northeasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity forecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady strengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48 h. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11. Sergio should be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn toward the northwest. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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