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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-11-04 09:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040838 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 Xavier remains a sheared tropical cyclone. Although deep convection continues to develop over the northeastern portion of the circulation, recent satellite imagery suggests that the center has become a little more exposed to the southwest of the convective mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have not changed overnight, and a blend of those data along with the latest SATCON estimate still yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt. Xavier has likely peaked in intensity as the strong vertical wind shear over the system is forecast to increase further today and tonight. This should result in gradual weakening during the next day or two, and the new NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the latest multi-model intensity consensus. The dynamical models indicate that Xavier will lose its deep convection in 48 to 72 hours, and the official forecast calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low by day 3. The latest satellite fixes suggest that Xavier has made its anticipated northward turn. The tropical storm is forecast to move slowly northward today, but it should turn west-northwestward, then westward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it weakens and is steered by the low-level flow to the south of a subtropical ridge. The UKMET model remains an outlier as it keeps the cyclone stronger and deeper which allows Xavier to move much farther north. The remainder of the track guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track is near a blend of the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF models, and is very close to the latest FSSE guidance. Although the center Xavier is not forecast to move much closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico, large swells and locally heavy rainfall could affect portions of that area during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 16.6N 105.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.8N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.3N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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