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Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
2020-08-26 22:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 20:46:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 21:32:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-26 22:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HERNAN... ...FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Hernan was located near 17.7, -105.8 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-26 22:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 262042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES TROPICAL STORM HERNAN... ...FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 105.8W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 105.8 West. Hernan is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday. The system is then expected to turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is expected to begin late Thursday night, and Hernan is forecast to become a remnant low Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-26 22:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 262042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-26 22:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 262041 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 105.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 108.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 105.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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