je.st
news
Tag: hernan
Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 135 WTPZ43 KNHC 280234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A burst of strong convection has developed near the center of Hernan during the past several hours, but overall the storm remains poorly organized. Indeed, a westerly surface wind observed in the Isla Marias Islands to the north of the center makes it unclear if a closed circulation still exists, a question that upcoming scatterometer data will hopefully resolve. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based mainly on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then west- northwestward as it rotates around the northeastern side of the approaching Tropical Storm Iselle. The new forecast track is nudged to the north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of continued strong easterly shear and interaction with the larger Iselle should cause Hernan to weaken during the next 48 h or so. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression after 12 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 36 h. After that, the cyclone is currently forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h as it gets absorbed into Iselle, and several of the global models suggest this could happen earlier. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-28 04:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-28 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Hernan was located near 20.5, -107.0 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
hernan
Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-28 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 107.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 107.0 West. Hernan is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hernan is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday and to a remnant low pressure area on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-28 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 107.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] next »