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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-10-22 16:57:54| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
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The Future of the Manufacturers Representative Profession Panel Discussion on November 1st
2021-10-14 10:58:30| MANAonline.org
Join us on Monday, November 1, 2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET, 3:00 p.m. CT, 2:00 p.m. MT, 1:00 p.m. PT In talking with manufacturers’ representative members and from emails we receive, some express concerns about the future of the manufacturers’ representative profession. We also hear from other members that this year will be a record […]
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Remnants of Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-10-14 04:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140239 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Pamela Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Pamela has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Pamela. Although the system has dissipated, deep-layer moisture associated with Pamela's remnants will continue to spread over the south-central United States. As a result, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through Thursday. These rains may contribute to considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. For additional information on the heavy rainfall and flood potential, please consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 27.5N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF PAMELA 12H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-10-13 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131452 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane. To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to 20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are estimated to have decreased to 55 kt. The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model consensus solutions. Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be advected northeastward into the south-central United States. Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later today and on Thursday for these areas. Key Messages: 1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still expected for the next several hours. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-10-13 10:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130848 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed, recent imagery indicates that the center is more involved with the deep convection than it was earlier, suggesting that at least some strengthening has taken place. Moreover, an excellent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 0500 UTC showed a couple of 53 to 54 kt wind vectors, which is likely an undersampling of the peak intensity. On this basis, the estimated intensity of Pamela is increased slightly to 65 kt, so the system is once again a hurricane. Since the tropical cyclone is close to landfall and the upper-level winds are not conducive for much more strengthening, little change in intensity is likely until the center crosses the coast. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the official forecast may be a little on the high side given the mountainous terrain that the system will traverse. Center fixes from geostationary imagery and the scatterometer indicate that Pamela is now moving faster toward the northeast, or at about 045/12 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is embedded in the deep-layer southwesterly flow between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and a broad trough over the west-central United States. The official forecast track has been shifted a little to the southeast of the previous one, but still moves Pamela across the coast of Mexico withing the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Later today and tonight, the rapidly weakening cyclone should move over central and northern Mexico. By 36 hours, the global models show the system losing its identity. The official forecast track is close to the simple and corrected consensus model solutions. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States later today or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of Mexico this morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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