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Tropical Storm Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2017-09-11 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 112036 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBIA SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AUGUSTA GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 45 13(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MONTGOMERY AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-11 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 the center of Irma was located near 31.5, -84.0 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irma Public Advisory Number 51
2017-09-11 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 84.0W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF ALBANY GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warnings from Fernandina Beach southward, from the Aucilla River westward, and from Clearwater Beach southward, including Tampa Bay, have been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning from the Flagler/Volusia County line to Altamaha Sound is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning from north of the Suwannee River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to the South Santee River * North of Clearwater Beach to the Aucilla River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to the South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Irma is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is expected by Tuesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over southwestern Georgia tonight and move into Alabama on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North of Clearwater Beach to Aucilla River...4 t 6 ft West of Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft Clearwater Beach to Bonita Beach including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft South Santee River to North of Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St. Johns River...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area into tonight. Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: South Carolina and north-central Georgia and Alabama into the southern Appalachians...3 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches. Northern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North Carolina...2 to 4 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight along the South Carolina coast. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Advisory Number 51
2017-09-11 22:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 112035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNINGS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD... FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD... AND FROM CLEARWATER BEACH SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY... HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ALTAMAHA SOUND IS DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * NORTH OF CLEARWATER BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 390SE 390SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.8N 88.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 84.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-11 19:48:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 the center of Irma was located near 30.8, -83.6 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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