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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2017-09-11 10:56:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 110856 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 13 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 24 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CHARLESTON SC 34 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTA GA 34 19 24(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) AUGUSTA GA 34 43 5(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 50 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 64 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBUS GA 34 34 44(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) COLUMBUS GA 50 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 4 11(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 10 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WHITING FLD FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 49
2017-09-11 10:55:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110855 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH... ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH...AND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE STORM SURGE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO CAPE SABLE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET * CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET TO FERNANDINA BEACH * ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * SOUTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH * SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 82.6W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT.......360NE 230SE 150SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..470NE 270SE 480SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 82.6W AT 11/0900Z...INLAND AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 82.2W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.8N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...220NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.5N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 82.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Irma wrecks Sir Richard Branson's Necker Island home
2017-09-11 10:18:40| BBC News | Business | UK Edition
Sir Richard Branson says most of the buildings and vegetation on Necker island are damaged.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 48A
2017-09-11 07:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110555 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 48A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...IRMA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 82.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF LAKELAND FLORIDA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Fernandina Beach * North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Florida Bay * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located by NOAA Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 82.2 West. Irma is moving toward the north- northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over the western Florida peninsula through this morning and then into the southeastern United States late today and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to become a tropical storm over far northern Florida or southern Georgia later today. Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The National Ocean Service station at the Clearwater Beach Pier recently reported a wind gust of 88 mph (142 km/h), and wind gusts of hurricane force have been recently reported at the Orlando International and the Orlando Executive airports. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 960 mb (28.35 inches). Lakeland Regional Airport recently reported a pressure of 963.4 mb (28.45 inches) as the center passed just to the west. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...4 to 6 ft Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...3 to 5 ft Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the central Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through the morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches. The Florida Keys...Additional 1 inch possible with storm total amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. The center of Irma is becoming less well defined in National Weather Service Doppler radar data, so hourly radar-based position updates are being discontinued at this time. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-11 06:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...IRMA LASHING CENTRAL FLORIDA... As of 1:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 the center of Irma was located near 27.9, -82.1 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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