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Tropical Storm Irma Public Advisory Number 50A
2017-09-11 19:48:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 111748 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 50A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...IRMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF ALBANY GEORGIA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Anna Maria Island southward. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from the Flagler/Volusia County line southward. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from the Suwannee River southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line * North of Anna Maria Island to the Ochlockonee River * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of the Flagler/Volusia County line to the South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.6 West. Irma is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over southwestern Georgia today, and move into eastern Alabama Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is forecast, and Irma is likely to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. Irma remains a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft Anna Maria Island southward to Bonita Beach...1 to 3 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Flagler/Volusia County line, including the St. Johns River...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the central and northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the eastern Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are also expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning area through today. Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6 inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches. Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to inches, isolated 10 inches. Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi, southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches. The precipitation threat for most of the Florida peninsula, except for the northernmost portions, has diminished. Scattered showers are expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch across most of the Florida peninsula during Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Irma Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2017-09-11 17:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 15:45:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irma Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-09-11 17:25:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 15:25:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irma Graphics
2017-09-11 17:04:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 15:04:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 15:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irma Forecast Discussion Number 50
2017-09-11 16:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 111452 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Irma continues to weaken while moving over extreme northern Florida with most of the deep convection displaced well to the north and northeast of the center due to strong shear. In fact, global model analyses suggest that the system has partial extratropical characteristics, with some associated cold and warm air advection. The current intensity is set at 55 kt which is in line with the highest sustained winds seen in surface observations. Since the cyclone is very large its weakening will be fairly gradual, but the effects of land and shear should reduce the system to a depression in about 24 hours. Shortly thereafter Irma will likely become a remnant low, with complete dissipation by 72 hours as shown by the dynamical guidance. The initial motion continues to be north-northwestward or 340/15 kt. Not much change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Irma or its remnant should continue to move along the eastern and northeastern periphery of a broad mid-level cyclonic circulation until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along portions of the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of the northern peninsula and eastern panhandle of Florida, and southern Georgia, which is quickly spreading to the rest of the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 inches or more per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern Georgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches are expected. Significant river flooding is possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of central Georgia and southern South Carolina where average rainfall of 3 to 6 inches and isolated 10 inch amounts are expected. Portions of these states within the southern Appalachians will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 30.3N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 12/0000Z 32.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1200Z 33.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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