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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-11 04:51:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 02:51:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 03:23:06 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-11 04:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 02:45:51 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 48
2017-09-11 04:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110244 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Irma's center has moved northward across the western Florida peninsula since it made landfall earlier this afternoon, and it is now located over west-central Florida. NOAA WSR-88D radar data from Tampa Bay are showing 95-100 kt winds at an elevation of about 3500 ft, so the hurricane's intensity is estimated to be 85 kt. Irma continues to have a large wind field, and exceptional hurricane- force wind gusts are still occurring well to the east of the center along the Florida east coast. Irma appears to be making some progress to the west of due north, and the longer-term initial motion is 350/12 kt. The cyclone is expected to swing around the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance currently located along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which should impart a north-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next 48 hours. Due to its recent more inland push, Irma's center is now forecast to remain over Florida and then move over the southeastern United States for the duration of its existence. Due to continued land interaction and strong shear of over 30 kt, Irma should continue to lose strength and fall below hurricane intensity on Monday. The cyclone is then expected to become a remnant low over western Tennessee by day 3 and dissipate by day 4. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along much of the Florida coast, including the Florida Keys, and portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida, with hurricane-force winds near the center. Also, Irma is a large hurricane, and hurricane-force wind gusts and sustained tropical-storm force winds extend far from the center. Wind hazards from Irma will also spread northward through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. 3. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of Florida, and these rains will spread into the rest of the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern Georgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. The southern Appalachian Mountains will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Irma is also expected to produce average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 27.5N 81.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1200Z 29.4N 82.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 33.9N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0000Z 37.5N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2017-09-11 04:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 110243 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 4 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 13(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CHARLESTON SC 34 30 7(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 45 8(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ATLANTA GA 34 5 23(28) 10(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) AUGUSTA GA 34 17 22(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SAVANNAH GA 34 58 8(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 50 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 81 13(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) WAYCROSS GA 50 4 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 50 20 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GAINESVILLE FL 64 29 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 64 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 64 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 64 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CEDAR KEY FL 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 55 21(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 2 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ST MARKS FL 34 64 11(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ST MARKS FL 50 5 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 34 31 3(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 34 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PANAMA CITY FL 34 16 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) COLUMBUS GA 34 9 51(60) 9(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) COLUMBUS GA 50 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) COLUMBUS GA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 9( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTGOMERY AL 34 6 11(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WHITING FLD FL 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 48
2017-09-11 04:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...IRMA PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 81.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Jupiter Inlet to Fernandina Beach * North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Florida Bay * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.9 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest at a faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will continue to move over the western Florida peninsula through Monday morning and then into the southeastern United States late Monday and Tuesday. Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to become a tropical storm over far northern Florida or southern Georgia on Monday. Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...4 to 6 ft Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...3 to 5 ft Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the central Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through Monday morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas overnight. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches. The Florida Keys...Additional 1 inch possible with storm total amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Monday night. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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