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Tropical Depression JAVIER Public Advisory Number 9A
2016-08-09 13:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 091151 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 600 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS THAT JAVIER HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 110.6W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch for the Baja California peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Javier was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 110.6 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier is expected to move near or over Baja California Sur through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Javier is forecast to become a remnant low within the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-09 11:07:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 08:44:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 09:04:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-08-09 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090843 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 24 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) LORETO 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-09 10:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JAVIER WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 the center of JAVIER was located near 23.3, -110.4 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm JAVIER Public Advisory Number 9
2016-08-09 10:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090843 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 ...JAVIER WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 110.4W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto * Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 110.4 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier is expected to move near or over Baja California Sur through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Javier is forecast to become a remnant low by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and coastal parts of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and southern Sonora through Thursday morning, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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