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Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Public Advisory Number 11
2016-08-09 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092030 TCPEP1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 ...JAVIER BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 112.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will continue to move near or over the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast for the next day or so, and the low is expected to dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnant low of Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JAVIER Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-08-09 22:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092030 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 112.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-09 17:07:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 14:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 15:04:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-09 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 The only areas of deep convection associated with Javier are some small patches of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is embedded within an air mass that is forecast to become drier and more stable with time. Therefore the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours, or sooner. The low is expected to dissipate over the central Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period. The center has become less defined but is believed to be located just offshore between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro, and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/6. Over the next couple of days, Javier or its remnant low should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system. The official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 23.8N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.8N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 26.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-08-09 16:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 091434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 9( 9) 12(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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