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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-09 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 9 the center of NICOLE was located near 24.0, -65.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 22
2016-10-09 16:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 091452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 ...NICOLE NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 65.4W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 65.4 West. Nicole is currently stationary, but a slow generally northward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: A combination of swells associated with Nicole and Post- Tropical Cyclone Matthew are expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 22
2016-10-09 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 091451 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 65.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 65.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 65.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.1N 65.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.0N 65.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.6N 65.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 64.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 34.9N 59.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-09 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 08:48:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Oct 2016 08:47:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2016-10-09 10:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 090848 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 22(31) 17(48) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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