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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)

2016-10-10 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 10 the center of NICOLE was located near 26.3, -65.4 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 27

2016-10-10 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 102034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 65.4W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 65.4 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow north- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the north by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Nicole is expected to reach hurricane strength on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda by Wednesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2016-10-10 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 102034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 18(26) 51(77) 6(83) X(83) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 5(49) X(49) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 27

2016-10-10 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 102034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 65.4W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 65.4W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.9N 65.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 66.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.2N 64.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 38.1N 58.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 42.0N 54.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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