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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 28
2016-10-11 04:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0300 UTC TUE OCT 11 2016 NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 65.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 65.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.4N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 66.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.9N 66.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 66.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 39.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 42.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-11 01:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2016 23:38:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2016 21:04:37 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-11 01:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Oct 10 the center of NICOLE was located near 26.7, -65.4 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-10 23:07:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2016 20:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Oct 2016 21:04:37 GMT
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nicole
Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-10-10 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 102035 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016 While Nicole's convective organization has not changed much over the last several hours, satellite data indicate that the cyclone is maintaining a well-defined inner-core structure. Several bands have also developed over the eastern half of the circulation. An ASCAT pass received after the previous advisory's issuance indicated a couple of reliable 50-kt wind vectors, and the initial intensity estimate is set to this value in basic agreement with satellite classifications. Nicole appears to have turned slightly west of due north, and the initial motion estimate is 355/05. This general motion is expected to continue through tonight or early Tuesday while a shortwave trough treks across Atlantic Canada and bypasses the storm to the north. In the wake of this weather system, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to build north and west of Nicole for a short time, allowing the track to bend more toward the left. The ECMWF continues to predict a greater westerly component motion than the other guidance for the next 3 days, with still about half of the the 0000 UTC ensemble members left of the current forecast. Before Nicole reaches 30N, it should encounter a stronger mid-latitude flow and recurve into the westerlies with increasing forward speed over the next few days. The new track forecast continues to place greater weight on the ECMWF guidance suite, which results in the track being adjusted slightly left of the previous one through the forecast period. It is in the middle of the 0000 UTC ECMWF ensemble output and to the left of the latest multi-model consensus. Nicole is still struggling partially from mid- to upper-level dry air associated with a lobe of vorticity from a mid-latitude shortwave trough that has been wrapping around the cyclone's circulation. In addition, oceanic upwelling beneath the cyclone has also likely contributed to the cyclone's lack of convective vigor. Once Nicole starts to move farther west over untapped waters and its interaction with the above-mentioned feature ends, the strong northerly shear affecting Nicole for days will have decreased significantly. With the tropical cyclone moving over near-record warm SSTs at that time, in a reasonably moist large-scale environment, and under a diffluent flow at upper levels, a significant intensification is likely. Global models maintain the theme of showing substantial deepening over the next few days. By 72 hours, or shortly thereafter, strong southwesterly shear could bring the predicted intensification to a close unless baroclinic processes counteract the shear enough to allow for some further increase in strength. Extratropical transition in shown by day 5. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and generally near or just above the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 26.3N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 27.5N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 28.2N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 29.5N 66.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 33.2N 64.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 38.1N 58.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 42.0N 54.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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