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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-10-10 17:05:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 101505 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern has lost organization since late yesterday. A series of convective bursts over the last 24 hours faded away into a shallow and shapeless cloud mass earlier this morning. Since then, some deep convection has redeveloped over the low-level center but there has been no apparent increase to its organization. A blend of the Final-T and CI-number from the TAFB satellite classification and UW-CIMSS ADT values are used to lower the initial intensity estimate to 50 kt. Nicole has been moving slowly northward or 360/05 as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its northeast. While this general motion should continue today, a shortwave trough trekking across Atlantic Canada is expected to bypass Nicole during the next 24 hours, and allow a weak mid-level ridge to build north and west of the cyclone during the next day or two. This synoptic pattern should result in a leftward bend of the track through about 48 hours. After that time, global models show Nicole turning northward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed once it reaches a faster-paced westerly flow around 30N. Although the track guidance is in much better agreement than it has been during the last few days, the theme from yesterday of the ECMWF and its 0000 UTC ensemble members showing Nicole with a greater westerly component of motion from 24 to 72 hours persists. In fact, a majority of the ECMWF ensembles members are still, to varying degrees, left of the current forecast. The new track forecast is again adjusted to left of the previous one, closer to the ECMWF, and is west of the model consensus aids. During the last 24 hours, a piece of vorticity that fractured from a central Atlantic shortwave trough has been merging with Nicole. The interaction of this feature with Nicole and a continuation of strong northerly shear could explain the degraded satellite appearance of Nicole since yesterday. Nonetheless, the shear is still forecast to diminish during the next day or two, as the cyclone traverses near-record warm SSTs, finds itself in a reasonably moist environment and an increasingly diffluent flow aloft. These factors suggest that a significant re-intensification is still possible, as the global models continue to show. The only caveat would be to what degree a drier and more stable air in the wake of Post-Tropical Matthew would modify as it is at least partially ingested by Nicole's circulation. SHIPS model output shows the shear greatly increasing by 96 hours, which would likely result in an end to the predicted intensification phase unless baroclinic processes become dominant and result in just a little bit more. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that global models show Nicole becoming a large hurricane in about 3 days, with a wide distribution of strong winds over the central Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 25.7N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.4N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 27.2N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 27.7N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 28.5N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 31.8N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 36.7N 59.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 41.2N 53.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2016-10-10 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 101444 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 50(63) 15(78) X(78) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 15(44) X(44) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-10 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... ...BUT STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 10 the center of NICOLE was located near 25.7, -65.2 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 26
2016-10-10 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 101444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016 ...NICOLE LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY... ...BUT STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 65.2W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Nicole. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by tonight, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole should increase on Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 26
2016-10-10 16:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 101443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 65.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 65.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.4N 65.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.2N 66.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.7N 66.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 66.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 65.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 36.7N 59.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 41.2N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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