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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-04 22:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:35:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Aug 2021 20:35:32 GMT
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-04 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Convection associated with Hilda continues to weaken and shrink in areal coverage due to modest northwesterly vertical wind shear, sub-25C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and entrainment of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. A 1656Z partial ASCAT-A scatterometer pass revealed two 33-kt vectors in the southeastern quadrant in the radius-of-maximum winds. Even allowing for some undersampling, this indicates that Hilda is barely hanging on to tropical storm status, and the initial intensity will remain at 35 kt for this advisory. Model analyses show virtually no instability in the center of and north of Hilda right now, and with the cyclone forecast to move over even cooler water and into increasing westerly wind shear during the next 12-24 hours, a rapid decrease in both the convection and cyclone's intensity appears to be forthcoming soon. Hilda is forecast to become a depression later tonight and a remnant low on Thursday. Dissipation is expected by late Friday or Saturday well to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. Hilda continues on a steady west-northwestward course or 295/08 kt. This general motion is expected to continue into Thursday, followed by a more westward motion on Friday and Saturday as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to north of Hilda on days 2 and 3. The official NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the tightly packed consensus track models to the north and the ECMWF model to the south. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.0N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 22.4N 136.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z 23.0N 138.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-04 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 4 the center of Hilda was located near 19.4, -128.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-04 22:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 ...HILDA BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 128.0W ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 128.0 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight and degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-04 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC WED AUG 04 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 3 15(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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