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Tropical Depression Hilda Public Advisory Number 24
2021-08-05 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 051433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 ...HILDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 130.2W ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 130.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-08-05 16:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 051433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-08-05 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 051432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 130.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-08-05 10:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 08:41:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Aug 2021 08:41:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-08-05 10:41:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Hilda is maintaining a small, but shrinking area of deep convection, which has rotated from the southeast to northern portion of the storm's circulation. A 0405 UTC ASCAT-A and 0522 UTC ASCAT-B pass had peak wind retrievals of 36 and 40 kt respectively, about 40 n mi northeast of Hilda's center. This scatterometer data suggests that the storm might have been stronger than estimated yesterday when the convection was more robust. However, given the warming cloud tops and shrinking area of convection since that time, the initial advisory intensity was kept at 35 kt, which still agrees with the most recent subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Hilda is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt as the tropical cyclone remains steered by a large subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific. As the storm becomes more shallow, its general motion should bend westward and gradually accelerate due to the influence of a large low-level ridge centered well northward. The latest track guidance is slightly more poleward early on, and the NHC track forecast was nudged a bit further north, but remains a bit south of the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). As noted previously, the GFS model forecast remains a northern outlier, with more interaction between Hilda and recently upgraded Jimena, and its solution is not favored at this time. As Hilda continues to move over increasingly cool ocean waters and into a drier and more stable environment, the remaining deep convection will likely dissipate at some point later today. Additional convective bursts thereafter will become increasingly unlikely. The latest NHC forecast expects Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low by tomorrow. This solution is favored by most of the intensity guidance. The remnant low is then forecast to open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.1N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.9N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 21.9N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 22.6N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 23.2N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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