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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 22
2021-08-05 04:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 Hilda's satellite appearance has changed little over the past several hours. Small bursts of moderate to deep convection persist in the eastern semicircle of the system, and the low-level center is still partially exposed to the west of the convective cloud mass. Without any recent scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with a T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. A subtropical ridge over the eastern North Pacific continues to steer Hilda west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a slight westward turn on Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by a low-level ridge to its north. While most of the models show limited interaction between Hilda and TD Nine-E to its southwest, it is worth noting that the GFS moves both Nine-E and Hilda much farther northward than the rest of the guidance. The GFS solution is not favored at this time, and the latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one and lies near the multi-model guidance consensus. Hilda is not expected to remain a tropical storm for much longer. As sea surface temperatures decrease along its track and the cyclone moves into a drier, more stable environment, it will become increasingly difficult for Hilda to sustain organized convection near its center. The latest NHC forecast calls for Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and degenerate to a 25-kt remnant low on Friday morning. Then, the global models agree that the system should open into a trough and dissipate by Saturday morning well east of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2021-08-05 04:34:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 20 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-08-05 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 4 the center of Hilda was located near 19.6, -128.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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hilda
Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 22
2021-08-05 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 04 2021 ...HILDA HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 128.7W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 128.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Hilda is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning and degenerate into a remnant low early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-08-05 04:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 050233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 128.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 128.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 132.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.6N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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