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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Graphics
2019-08-05 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2019 02:38:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Aug 2019 02:38:26 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-08-05 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050236 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 Gil has lacked significant organized deep convection for more than 12 hours. Therefore, the depression has been downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low. Although the system may still produce some sporadic, nonpersistent convection into early Monday, dry and stable air along with strong northwesterly shear will likely prevent any appreciable convection from developing over the next couple of days. This should cause the remnant low to weaken and then open into a trough within the next 24-36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. The remnant low is expected to move westward tonight then west-southwestward on Monday, steered by the low-level environmental flow. This west-southwestward motion should continue until the low dissipates. This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.1N 127.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/1200Z 15.0N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0000Z 14.6N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil (EP3/EP082019)
2019-08-05 04:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...GIL DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 the center of Gil was located near 15.1, -127.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Public Advisory Number 7
2019-08-05 04:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 050232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082019 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2019 ...GIL DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 127.3W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 127.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn to the west-southwest is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-08-05 04:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 050232 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082019 0300 UTC MON AUG 05 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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