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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 27
2019-09-07 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072034 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours, and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low. Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2019-09-07 22:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072034 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) 25N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 30N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-07 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 7 the center of Juliette was located near 24.4, -129.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Public Advisory Number 27
2019-09-07 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 129.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the low's maximum winds should drop below gale force by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 27
2019-09-07 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072034 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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