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Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-08-29 10:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 290839 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONCTON NB 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-08-29 10:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290839 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 39.3N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.3N 64.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 71.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Graphics
2019-08-25 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 20:32:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 20:32:50 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-08-25 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 563 WTPZ45 KNHC 252031 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 The initial motion is 340/07 kt. Ivo has slowed down due to the system weakening and becoming vertically shallow. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected today and this evening, followed by a turn toward the north late tonight or early Monday morning. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly clustered consensus models. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based mainly on continuity with the previous forecast. The inner-core region of Ivo's circulation has been devoid of any convection for more than 12 hours. What little bit of thunderstorm activity that does exist well to the north-northwest and west of the center is not showing any signs of feeding back onto the cyclone and, therefore, Ivo has degenerated into a remnant low pressure system. Additional spin down of the shallow vortex is forecast due to the cyclone moving over sub-22 deg C sea-surface temperatures and continuing to ingest more cool and stable air, with dissipation likely by Tuesday. Although Ivo is no longer a tropical cyclone, significant swells generated by the low are still affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells will continue into tonight and could cause dangerous rip currents before subsiding on Monday. See products from your local weather office for additional information. This is the last NHC advisory on Ivo. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.0N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 26.9N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 27.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 27.7N 117.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo (EP5/EP102019)
2019-08-25 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IVO DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 26.0, -117.9 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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